I’m not here to peddle a light +250 same-game parlay for the big game and think there is some value on some of the bigger names to target for a Super Bowl parlay. I’m taking three players (four picks) and putting together a solid 10-to-1 ticket where all four of the plays project +EV with THE BLITZ and the Covers’ NFL player props projections.
If you like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Deebo Samuel, this is the SGP you want in your account for Super Bowl LVIII.
Read on for our DraftKings SGP as part of our NFL picks. And you can check out our FanDuel SGP pick for more great SB LVIII betting options!
DraftKings same-game parlay for Kansas City vs San Francisco
George Kittle 50+ receiving yardsDeebo Samuel 50+ receiving yardsDeebo Samuel Over 13.5 rushing yardsTravis Kelce 70+ receiving yards
+1,000 at DraftKings
Pick made on 1/31.
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DraftKings Big Game SGP
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle was a ghost vs. Detroit but will have plenty of time to recover from his toe injury. He played 64 of 66 snaps last week so the opportunities are there and his total receiving yards prop has fallen from 61.5 to 48.5 since the NFC Championship. He can also hit this Over in a low-volume game and I also love his Over 20.5 yards for his longest reception. THE BLITZ is projecting 62.3 receiving yards and Covers’ projections are at 58.5.
Deebo Samuel will be back to full health by the time Super Bowl LVIII rolls around. He was questionable heading into last week but still took a team-high nine targets for 89 yards and three carries.
THE BLITZ projects 70.22 receiving yards while the Covers prop projection has 74.4, ranking the Over as a 5-star play. Samuel gets a lot of low aDOT receptions and Kansas City Chiefs corners Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed are not the best tackling CBs.
McDuffie has 11 missed tackles compared to 54 solos while Sneed also has 11 missed tackles vs. 65 solo tackles. If Deebo can shed one guy, 20-yard gains could be in his near future. Both defenders grade better in coverage than in the run game, per Pro Football Focus.
His rush yards are a sneaky good play here even with a prop that has moved from 8.5 to 13.5. It was as high as 16.5 vs. Green Bay before a shoulder injury sidelined him.
Deebo is an important part of the run game and should be penciled in for three or more carries. From Week 5 to 18, Samuel had 11 or more rushing yards in eight of 11 games. Across his six playoff games from the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he totaled 40 carries for 172 yards for an average of 6.7 carries for 29 rushing yards per game.
Only one of those seasons included Christian McCaffrey, but even last year he carried the ball three, four, and six times in the playoffs.
Travis Kelce has the loftiest number for a reason. He is a playoff dominator and he just rises to the occasion, as bettors saw in the AFC Championship Game vs. Baltimore.
Across his 21 playoff games, he is averaging 9.14 targets per game for 7.43 receptions and 86.2 yards. Since the 2020 season, the TE is averaging 8.67 catches, 98.2 yards, and 1.08 TDs per playoff game. A Kelce TD bumps the odds up to +1,500.
He’s hit this number in 12 straight playoff games and THE BLITZ is projecting 76 receiving yards and Covers’ projections are sitting at 87.6.
+1,000 is a solid price for these two TEs to hit modest numbers and for Deebo to continue to be the second-biggest part of this 49ers offense.
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Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site’s live content lineup.
Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.
Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preferred sportsbook is bet365, which he favors for its extensive range of player prop markets and live betting options.
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